I'll be following how the bonus season plays out this year. Most banks will apparently have huge bonus seasons.
Goldman, doing the best, will pay the biggest bonuses. Back in August, the CEO told staff to refrain from ostentation. Didn't really work: bankers and traders are making giant purchases, just with lowered voices.
I'm reminded of the movie Goodfellas. The guys pull off the biggest heist in history, and DeNiro (Jimmy Conway) tells everyone not to spend the money until the police heat turns down. Instead, the next day, one guy shows up in a new pink Cadillac, the next guy's wife has a new mink coat.
The most interesting aspect will be how the public responds. Some predict public outrage, but I think it will brief and muted. The Wall Street show will roll on. Only strict regulatory overhaul has a chance to change things.
In Goodfellas, recall, the only thing that stopped the lavish spending was Jimmy Conway killing everyone off.
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