Scoble argues that the future of office productivity software is moving to mobile phones. A new toolset built on Google Apps convinces him.
Partly, this is due to the thinness of Google Apps. But I think the fact that Google Apps is free makes it very attractive to developers to build around. Intuitively, we know that free is coming and that free is the playing field.
If MS Office came out with a completely online version tomorrow, all for $25, what percent of the nascent web-based office market would they capture? My guess would be less than half, and those would basically be users who wanted interactivity between the online and installed versions. Perhaps that is the money-making strategy for them now -- build on their strengths and installed base -- but the window is closing.
Eventually, and sooner than we might think, MS Office must have a highly functional, free online version to compete. Otherwise, they cannot get online market share. And without the market share, they can't get developer apps and plug-ins. The iPhone and Firefox and Facebook (and increasingly Android) have shown the value of third-party apps.
Socialwok may or not be free, but it's part of the ecosystem that gets created around a big successful free app.
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