Software stories: Firefox paradox

Imagine you're Firefox. You were birthed to weaken the evil IE, and you succeed magnificently.

Thanks to your trailblazing, other competitors, including a shiny new one created by your primary financial sponsor, have taken root and formed a vibrant browser market for the first time in years. IE used to enjoy over 90% market share, now settles for 50 - 60%.

As a result of the competition, some are saying you've lost your edge. Looming in the background is a likely loss of funding as your sponsor focuses on their homegrown product.

Now you face an identity crisis: you have basically fulfilled your mandate, so what do you do next? A company without a vision is a sinking ship, and that goes double for one that relies heavily on volunteers.

Here are some options:

1: stay the course. As a vision, aim for nothing less than dominance in the browser market. If you lose funding, try to find another sponsor or use the wikipedia model, relying on personal donations.

2: partnership with other "free software", such as a version of linux or an "Office" suite, to be included as the bundled browser. Grow the installation base through new distribution channels. Another version of this would be tightly integrating with email clients, like Thunderbird, or other tools.

3: expand into new markets by creating new applications. Creates a new vision to rally around. Potential markets would be an on-line "Office" suite that works within Firefox, or follow Google's lead and try to turn Firefox into an OS.

There are frankly no great answers here. Lining up with partners will be very difficult -- these projects like their autonomy, users like to mix and match, and OS + browser bundling was the catalyst for Firefox's birth. Options 2 and 3 put Firefox on a collision course with Google, possibly hastening the cut-off of funds, and increase the need for even more volunteers.

Option 1 gives the greatest likelihood of short-term success, but could easily result in a steady decline. There is a wildcard to play here: a strong, cheap, tribal marketing plan -- one that highlights and encourages add-in apps, which is Firefox's primary competitive strength -- could turn Firefox in the browser equivalent of the iPhone. Such a marketing plan might run counter to the understood rules for open-source software.