How We Decide

Imagine you have two decisions to make: one which is complex, having a lot of variables to consider, and one that is much simpler, with only a couple of variables.  An example complex decision might be choosing which car to buy, while a simple decision might be what color.

Which decision will benefit more from thinking through the options logically?

Jonah Lehrer's How We Decide instructs us to use reason for simple and new decisions, but rely on our instincts for more complex ones. 

In other words, thinking about what color will probably make sure you get the best choice (for you), but thinking and comparing the cars will likely prove futile.  The book shows us that our brains can only actively consider a few variables at once, and decisions that have more variables end up being a crap shoot and often worse because we end up over-weighting less important factors.  (Yesterday's post might be an example of the latter.) 

Even choosing which box of cereal to buy can overwhelm us.  Because most of us don't buy cars too often, if you can narrow it down to three, just getting the cheapest one probably works best.

If you deal with complex situations frequently, create frequent practice opportunities to sharpen your instincts.  Flight simulators have worked wonders for pilots.  Also, take the time to reflect later on your satisfaction with your decisions and thoroughly understand what happened -- why you succeeded or failed.  (Reminds me of deliberate practice.)

The lessons of the book are pretty straightforward.  Its real strength comes from the fascinating stories and research examples.

Its conclusions can also be useful if you flip the decision around: when you're trying to convince someone else of a decision. 

As developers and engineers, we often try to convince our customers, our audience, each other by laying out intricate arguments while highlighting caveats.  Instead, identify the top priorities and focus on those.